IDC Analysts Estimated Probability of Recovery of Semiconductor Products Market This Year

COVID-19 will have a significant impact on the global economy.
The COVID-19 pandemic is already affecting the global economy and will significantly disrupt the work of high-tech industries. IDC analysts tried to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the global semiconductor market and prepared an appropriate forecast.

The experts proceeded in their assessment of four scenarios, each of which is based on different assumptions. The first scenario gives as a result a market reduction of 12% or more, the second – by 3-6%. According to the third scenario, the market will grow by 2%, and in accordance with the fourth – by 6% or more.

In any case, according to analysts, travel and quarantine bans, the destruction of supply chains, the uncertainty in the stock market, the decline in business confidence and growing panic among the population will affect. At the same time, the development and implementation of new technologies, including 5G, the Internet of things, supercomputers and artificial intelligence, will be of key importance for the overall recovery of the technological sector. In these conditions, manufacturers need to continue to focus on long-term investments, to maintain interaction with partners and potential customers.

According to IDC, the likelihood of a significant reduction in world income from the production of semiconductor devices in 2020 instead of the previously expected growth of 2% is almost 80%. At the same time, the most probable in IDC consider a market reduction of 6%. According to the corresponding scenario, the supply chain will be restored within 6-9 months, and quarantine and travel bans will weaken during the summer. The likelihood of an industry recovery in 2020 is estimated by analysts at 20%.

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